Espresso Publishing believes that a high CTR does not improve the chances of your games being successful. Even reaching the level of 10% is not a fact that the game will become a hit and take a place in the charts. Why is it worth paying less attention to CTR, and it’s time to move on to CPI testing on alternative sites? Let’s figure it out!

Espresso Publishing argues that CTR is an additional metric and indicates the best features of the project, rather than its overall perception. Also, according to their estimates, a good CTR for the hyper-casual genre (when tested on American Facebook) can be considered one that is about 4%.

The key metric for Espresso Publishing is Day 1 Retention (R1). It is this metric that is worth testing for a broader understanding of the prospects of the project. At the same time, they note that today in 2 out of 3 test requests they are asked to assess the CPI. But the CPI situation is more complicated. Due to the introduction of the new iOS policy, the cost per user acquisition has increased. This is especially noticeable in the cost of traffic on Google Play (for Android on Facebook, the average CPI of projects entering the Espresso Publishing platform reaches $2.5).

Tenjin is primarily known for providing the necessary tools for publishers. Tenjin’s top priority is to provide advanced ad analytics capabilities for iOS. According to their information, the distribution of budgets between platforms has changed. In 2019, 64% of ad budgets for hyper-casual publishers were spent on iOS, now this figure has dropped to 45%. We’ve already covered this company in our article on the new GrowthFullStack tools.

But at the same time, CPI metrics are constantly growing on Facebook. Therefore, publishers are increasingly using alternative sources to test products. Often, the results on alternative channels look different and provide opportunities for product development or promote rapid growth. One of them is TikTok.

The company cites Mini Theft Auto: Never fast enough! As an example. On Facebook, the project’s creatives showed a CPI of $0.89, and on TikTok, they showed a CPI of $0.45. And this is not an isolated case.

Mini Theft Auto: Never fast enough!

Espresso Publishing made the following conclusions: some projects, due to high CPM on Facebook, may not pass hyper-casual indicators (and do not pass). At the same time, an additional test on alternative platforms shows that projects may well pay off.

The hyper-casual game publishing business is changing every day. If earlier it was enough to do a couple of tests on Facebook with well-chosen creatives to understand whether the game will be successful or not, now the process becomes much more complicated.